SoCal Housing Just Hit a “Two-Year Low” — But Here’s the Real Story

Every January, SoCal home prices dip. That is not news. Winter is the slowest season in real estate across the board and Southern California is no exception. Buyers are less active, fewer homes sell, and the numbers reflect that. So when you see a headline screaming "two-year low," take it with a grain of salt. A lot of what you are reading is seasonal noise.

That said, this January was not purely seasonal. According to the LA Times Housing Tracker, the average SoCal home price fell to $855,335, down 0.9% year over year. That is the third straight month of declines and the eighth drop in the last nine months. The magnitude is small, but the consistency is worth paying attention to.

A few real factors are layered on top of the typical winter slowdown: mortgage rates are still elevated, inventory is quietly rising, and tariff-related economic anxiety is making some buyers more hesitant than usual. None of this adds up to a crash. But it does mean the market is giving buyers a window that did not exist 18 months ago. Here is what I am actually seeing on the ground.

January 2026 by the numbers:

$855,335 average SoCal home price, the lowest since March 2024

0.9% year-over-year price decline across Southern California

3,472 new homes listed in LA County in January, the lowest since January 2024

$2,163 median rent in LA, the lowest since January 2022

What is driving the slowdown

There are a few overlapping forces at work here. Mortgage rates remain sticky, keeping monthly payments high and sidelining buyers who have been waiting for relief. Inventory in LA County hit its lowest January total in two years, which is unusual. When fewer sellers list, it is often a sign that owners are holding back, either protecting a low pandemic-era rate or uncertain about what they would buy next.

On top of that, broader economic anxiety is real. Tariff-related uncertainty has crept into buyer psychology, making people more cautious about committing to large financial decisions. That hesitation shows up in the numbers.

Until the recent wave of declines, July 2023 was the last time year-over-year prices had fallen in SoCal. That episode was driven by rapidly rising mortgage rates. This time, the culprit is a slower-moving mix of high rates, rising inventory, and softening demand.

The rental market is also softening

Rents in LA continued to drop in January, falling to a median of $2,163, which is the lowest since January 2022. This is a four-year low driven largely by a surge in multifamily supply. In 2025, 15,095 new multifamily units were completed in LA, an 18% increase year over year and the second-highest total in the past decade.

At the same time, LA County's population shrank by 28,000 in 2025. More supply, fewer renters, higher vacancy rates: the math is tilting toward renters right now. If you have been on the fence about whether to rent or buy, your negotiating position on the rental side has improved.

What Zillow is forecasting

Despite the recent slide, Zillow is projecting that home prices will rise 1.2% both nationally and in LA over the next 12 months, assuming the economy avoids a recession. Analysts at HomeBuyingInstitute agree, calling the current period potentially the low point of this price cycle. The California Association of Realtors is forecasting a statewide median of $905,000 by the end of 2026, representing a 3.6% increase from 2025.


What this means for buyers and sellers

For Buyers

More leverage than a year ago

Homes sitting longer, sellers more open to negotiation

Less competition from other buyers

Watch out: if rates ease and sentiment improves, this window closes fast.

For Sellers

Pricing right from day one is critical

Buyers are watching value and days on market closely

Priced sharp, staged well, marketed properly — still moving

Overpriced listings are sitting and losing leverage every week.

For Anyone Watching

January always exaggerates weakness — it is the slowest month of the year

Spring market (March through April) will be the real signal for 2026

Do not read too much into winter numbers. Watch what happens in spring.

My take

The headlines are eye-catching but the math tells a different story. A 0.9% decline offset by Zillow's 1.2% forecasted increase means we are essentially flat. This is not a crash. It is a market finding its footing.

Everything right now comes down to three things: inventory, tariffs, and mortgage rates. With appreciation flat, wage growth ticking up, and rates coming off their peak, affordability is quietly tilting in buyers favor for the first time in a while. We are already seeing it show up in the data. Mortgage applications and buyer activity have picked up recently, signaling that buyers are re-entering the market.

That said, buyers are cautious and disciplined right now. They are not overpaying out of fear like they were in 2021 and 2022. The dynamic is more selective. Some homes are still getting multiple offers and drawing hundreds of open house visitors in a single weekend. Others are sitting with zero traction. The difference almost always comes down to pricing and presentation.

The market is at an inflection point right now, trying to decide which direction it is going to go. More than anything else, that direction will be determined by how tariff policy plays out and what it means for the broader economy. Spring will tell us a lot.

Let's Chat

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The LA Summer Camp Cheat Sheet Every Busy Mom Needs

SUMMER CAMPS · PARENTING · LOS ANGELES

The LA Summer Camp Cheat Sheet Every Busy Mom Needs

By Renee Vancans

50+ Los Angeles camps — organized, researched, and ready for you to download for free

Let's be honest: figuring out summer camp in LA is practically a part-time job.

You've got kids who need to be somewhere fun and safe while you're managing work, life, and everything in between. You've got a city bursting with options — beach camps, STEM camps, theater camps, horse camps, language immersion camps — and approximately zero time to research all of them from scratch. Every year.

That's exactly why I put together The LA Summer Camp Cheat Sheet (Busy Mom Edition). It's the guide I wished existed when I was first navigating the LA camp world, and now I'm sharing it with you completely free.

Download the Free LA Summer Camp Guide

What's Inside the Guide

This isn't just a list. It's 50+ camps, organized into categories so you can find what actually fits your kid:

  • Arts & Performance — theater, dance, music, film, and more

  • STEM & Science — coding, robotics, hands-on science

  • Nature & Outdoor — hiking, beach, animals, sleepaway adventures

  • Language Immersion — Spanish, Mandarin, and more

  • Jewish & Cultural camps

  • General / Info

    • Location and neighborhood

    • Age ranges

    • Day camp vs. sleepaway

    • Schedule and session lengths

    • Approximate cost

    • Direct clickable links to register

Why I Made This

As a mom in Los Angeles, I know how overwhelming the camp search gets. Registration for the best camps opens in January and February — sometimes earlier — and if you miss the window, you're scrambling. I've been there.

I spent weeks building this resource so you don't have to. I combed through dozens of LA camps, verified the details, and organized everything into one clean, easy-to-use PDF you can refer back to all season long.

Think of it as your camp-planning shortcut. The kind a well-connected mom friend would hand you over coffee.


A Few Camps Worth Highlighting

With 50+ options it's hard to pick favorites, but here are a few that stand out:

Best for the Outdoorsy Kid

Cali Camp (Topanga Canyon) — 9 weeks of nature and adventure in the mountains above Malibu. Transportation is included in the price, which is a rare and wonderful thing.

Hawks LA — Hiking and nature exploration at different parks around LA. Perfect for kids who want to be outside all day.

Best for the Performer

Act One Theater Camp (Glendale) — Three 3-week sessions with extended care available. Kids work toward a real performance at the end.

Drama Maniacs (Glendale/Burbank area) — Great value with sibling discounts and multi-week pricing. Runs all summer.

Best Budget-Friendly Option

Burbank Parks & Rec — At just $220/week, this is one of the best deals in the city. Covers art, sports, and nature. Fills up fast — pre-register in March!

LA Boys & Girls Club — Sliding scale pricing up to $220/week depending on income. An incredible option for families who need flexibility.

Best for the STEM Kid

Galileo Summer Camp — Multiple LA locations, innovation-focused, week-long sessions all summer. One of the most popular in the city for a reason.

California Science Center Camp (South LA) — Half-day and full-day options, discounts for members. Right next to the Space Shuttle!

5 Things Every LA Camp Mom Should Know

  • The best camps fill up fast — often by February or March. Don't wait until spring. Register early.

  • Many camps offer them but don't advertise it upfront. A quick email can save you hundreds. Always ask about sibling discounts.

  • Transportation, snacks, and extended care can add up. A few camps (like Cali Camp, Camp Kinneret, Tumbleweed) include transportation in their fees. Check what's included in the price.

  • Boys & Girls Club, Girl Scouts, and others offer sliding scale pricing or need-based assistance. It never hurts to ask. Financial aid exists!

  • Looking for winter break or spring break coverage too? Several camps on the list offer sessions outside of summer — check the guide for details. Some camps run year-round.


Ready to stop researching and start planning?

Download The LA Summer Camp Cheat Sheet (Busy Mom Edition) — completely free. 50+ camps, all in one place, every link clickable.


Download the Free LA Summer Camp Guide

Already grabbed the guide? Share it with another LA mom who needs it! The more moms who have this, the better — we're all just trying to figure this out together.

About the Author

Renee Vancans is an LA-based mom, real estate agent and the co-founder of Vancans Group at Compass. She created this guide to help busy LA parents navigate the overwhelming world of summer camp planning, because every mom deserves a shortcut. If you like how she researches camps, imagine how she searches for homes.

Helping Los angeles moms find their home and community ❤️

renee@vancansgroup.com

714-290-4513

www.vancansgroup.com

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2026 Real Estate Market Outlook: What to Watch

What to Expect from LA's Housing Market in 2026

Modern Los Angeles home

After years of volatility, experts are forecasting a calmer, more balanced housing market for 2026. The big question for LA buyers and sellers: what does that actually mean for your plans this year?

The consensus from major forecasters paints a picture of modest improvements across the board. Rates should ease slightly, inventory will continue rising, and home sales are expected to climb as affordability gradually improves. Here's what you need to know.

Mortgage rates will stay above 6%

If you've been waiting for a dramatic drop in mortgage rates, CNBC reports that experts predict 30-year fixed rates will average between 5.90% and 6.30% in 2026. That's lower than 2025's average of 6.6%, but nowhere near the pandemic era lows.

Most of the top forecasters see rates staying above 6% throughout the year. Here's a snapshot of projections:

2026 Mortgage Rate Forecasts:

• Capital Economics: 6.5%

• MBA: 6.4%

• Compass: 6.4%

• Realtor.com: 6.3%

• Redfin: 6.3%

• Fannie Mae: 6.0%

Home prices will grow modestly

Price forecasts vary widely depending on local supply and demand. Yahoo Finance notes that most forecasters project home prices to increase between 0.5% and 2.0% in 2026. Some outliers predict as high as 4%, while others see a slight dip.

This is important context to share with clients who might be expecting dramatic appreciation or waiting for a crash. The market will be relatively stable.

Los Angeles property

Home Price Growth Projections:

• Cotality: +4.3%

• NAR: +4.0%

• Wells Fargo: +3.5%

• Realtor.com: +2.2%

• Zillow: +1.2%

• MBA: -0.3%

Housing inventory will continue to rise

Good news for buyers: most analysts agree housing inventory will keep growing in 2026, building on 2025's trend. The rate locked phenomenon is slowly losing its grip as more homeowners are forced or willing to move despite higher rates.

Compass predicts a 10% to 15% increase in inventory, with BrightMLS forecasting 10.9% and Realtor.com projecting 8.9%. This is one of the most significant shifts that will impact LA's market dynamics in 2026.

More options mean less competition and more negotiating power for buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines.

The luxury market operates differently

The luxury sector and the broader market are essentially two separate worlds. Cash transactions make up at least half of all luxury sales, meaning mortgage rates have far less impact. In LA, where million dollar homes are entry level in many desirable neighborhoods, this segment will continue driving overall market activity regardless of rate fluctuations.

Investors will stay active

Recent survey data shows 68% of single family rental investors plan to buy at least one more property in 2026. They're not pulling back, they're just being more selective about where and what they buy.

While many are selling underperforming assets and managing rising insurance costs, their interest in acquiring remains strong. Agents who can present well priced opportunities with clear cash flow narratives will continue finding investor clients throughout 2026.

Vancans family

What this means for LA

LA's market will mirror these national trends but with local nuances. The city's chronic inventory shortage means even modest increases in supply will be felt more dramatically here. Areas that were inaccessible to many buyers in 2023 and 2024 may open up slightly as competition eases.

Expect the split between LA proper and outlying areas to continue. Well located, turnkey properties in desirable neighborhoods will still command premium pricing and multiple offers. But homes that need work or sit in less competitive areas will give buyers real negotiating leverage.

For sellers, pricing strategy becomes critical. The days of listing high and waiting for the market to come to you are over in most segments. Homes priced realistically will sell. Overpriced listings will sit, and sitting too long now carries real consequences in a market with growing inventory.

My take

For buyers: This is the most favorable environment we've seen in years. More inventory, slightly lower rates, and less competition mean you'll have actual choices again. Get pre approved now and be ready to act when you find the right property.

For sellers: You can still get a great price, but it requires realistic expectations and smart positioning. Work with an agent who understands current market dynamics and can price your home to generate activity in the first two weeks.

For everyone: 2026 won't be dramatic, but it will be different. The market is normalizing after years of extremes. That's actually good news for people who want to make a move based on life circumstances rather than trying to time the market perfectly.

Ready to Make Your Move?

Whether you're buying or selling in 2026, having a clear strategy matters more than ever. Let's talk about how these market trends specifically impact your situation and timeline.

Schedule a Consultation

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Market Insights – Explore trends and get a custom home value report
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Recent Articles

The 2026 Buyer Wave Is Building in LA

88% of prospective buyers still plan to purchase in 2026. Here's what they're looking for.

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Are LA Home Prices Finally Coming Down?

The truth about LA's 2025-26 market: prices are flat, not falling. Here's what's really happening.

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How to Negotiate Like a Pro in a Buyer's Market

Six smart strategies to save thousands when making an offer in today's market.

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Jeremiah Vancans

Real Estate Agent
Vancans Group | Compass

jeremiah@vancansgroup.com
vancansgroup.com

CELL: 310-363-1416 | OFFICE: 310-299-9305
DRE: 01944484

The 2026 Buyer Wave Is Building in LA

LA buyers are gearing up for 2026

Los Angeles home

The LA market has been brutal. High prices, stubborn interest rates, and not enough inventory have kept a lot of buyers on the sidelines. But here's the thing: new research from RE/MAX shows 88% of prospective buyers still plan to purchase in 2026.

They haven't given up. They're just waiting for the right moment and getting strategic about where to buy.

What the data tells us:

• 88% of buyers say they're "very" or "somewhat likely" to purchase a home in 2026
• 71% have put their plans on hold because of affordability challenges
• 78% would move within six months if prices become more accessible

How this plays out in LA

LA proper is still expensive and competitive. But more than half of buyers are now looking beyond the urban core. Places like Pasadena, Torrance, Burbank, and the San Gabriel Valley are getting more attention. Even areas farther out (Simi Valley, Valencia, parts of the Inland Empire) are on buyers' radars as they chase space, value, and lifestyle over proximity to downtown.

Los Angeles neighborhood

What LA buyers actually care about

Safety: Nearly 80% rank this as a top concern. In LA, where neighborhoods can change block by block, this matters.

Walkable amenities: Grocery stores, cafes, restaurants within reach. With LA traffic, nearby conveniences save hours every week.

Parks and outdoor spaces: Year-round weather makes outdoor living part of the lifestyle here. Green spaces rank high.

Reasonable commutes: 58% prioritize proximity to work. In LA, that means finding the sweet spot between affordability and commute tolerance.

Community connection is the new priority

Here's something interesting: 71% of buyers would pay extra for a neighborhood with engaged, friendly residents. Not for bigger square footage or fancier finishes. For connection. According to the survey, this sense of community has become a major deciding factor.

In a sprawling metro like LA where isolation is common despite living near millions of people, this makes sense. Younger buyers especially (Gen Z and Millennials at 78% and 74% respectively) are willing to pay significantly more for neighborhoods that feel like actual communities.

Think: active community centers, local events, farmers markets, established social scenes. Areas like Eagle Rock, Atwater Village, and El Segundo have built strong reputations for exactly this.

Vancans Group team

The lifestyle premium

76% of buyers say they'd pay at least 5% more for a home in a neighborhood with community amenities (shared pools, fitness centers, gathering spaces). On an $800K LA home, that's $40,000+ buyers are willing to invest for lifestyle benefits.

My take

If you're planning to buy in LA this year, here's what's working:

Expand your search. The best value neighborhoods aren't always the ones you started with. Be open to areas that meet your lifestyle needs even if they're farther from your original target.

Prioritize fundamentals. Safety, schools (if relevant), and commute come first. Everything else is negotiable.

Think long-term. More than half of buyers care about future development. New retail, transit, or housing projects signal a neighborhood on the rise.

Stay ready. When conditions improve even slightly, competition will heat up fast. Get pre-approved now so you're positioned to act.

Let's Make a Game Plan

Let's talk about which LA neighborhoods align with your budget, lifestyle, and timeline. The market is shifting. Let's make sure you're positioned to take advantage.

Schedule a Consultation

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6 Buyer Negotiation Tips

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Market Insights & Seller Reports

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Are LA Home Prices Finally Coming Down? Here’s the Truth for 2025–26

You’ve probably heard people say Los Angeles home prices are dropping—but the data tells a different story. Prices are essentially flat year over year, with mild softening in certain pockets while well-priced, turnkey homes continue to hold their value.

Big Picture: Prices Are Flat, Not Falling

  • The Case-Shiller LA Index is up just 0.4% from last year—basically unchanged once inflation is considered.

  • Zillow shows LA home values down 2–3%, suggesting small dips in specific segments, not a citywide correction.

LA is not in a downturn. It’s in a paused, selective market.

Where Prices Are Coming Down

Softening shows up most in:

  • Overpriced or outdated listings

  • Homes that sit on the market

  • Higher-priced segments with more inventory

These properties often close 5–10% below peak values.

Where Prices Are Holding Strong

Turnkey, updated, and well-located homes—especially in NELA, Toluca Lake, Silver Lake, and good school districts—continue to attract strong demand and often sell near asking.

Looking Ahead to 2026

Most forecasts call for 3–4% annual appreciation, not price declines. If rates move into the low-6% range, expect sideways to slightly up pricing.

Bottom Line

Los Angeles is a flat, highly selective market, not a falling one.
Price drops are happening case by case, not across the entire city.

Hidden Hills vs. Calabasas: Ultra-Private Celebrity Estates and Long-Term Wealth Building

Which location offers better privacy and long-term wealth protection for ultra-high-net-worth buyers?

Hidden Hills and Calabasas are two of Southern California’s most coveted luxury communities—but for buyers prioritizing maximum privacy and elite long-term value, Hidden Hills consistently comes out ahead.

Hidden Hills Homes
Calabasas Homes


Hidden Hills: The Gold Standard for Privacy & Exclusivity

Hidden Hills is one of Los Angeles’ most private residential enclaves, designed for seclusion and peace of mind.

  • Fully gated city with monitored access

  • Large lots and low-density living

  • High-profile residents enhancing exclusivity and long-term value

While Calabasas has gated communities, none offer the full-city privacy structure found in Hidden Hills.


Long-Term Appreciation & Wealth Protection

Hidden Hills consistently outperforms due to scarcity and demand:

  • Limited inventory

  • Ultra-high-net-worth buyer appeal

  • Brand reputation as a stable luxury market

Calabasas remains strong but is influenced by a broader variety of price points and property styles.


Lifestyle & Amenities: Rural Luxury vs. Suburban Convenience

Hidden Hills offers a rural, equestrian-inspired lifestyle with open land and community events.
Calabasas leans more suburban, with elevated convenience—shopping, dining, fitness clubs, and quick access to everyday amenities.


Financial Considerations

When weighing investment factors, consider:

  • Property tax implications

  • Estate maintenance needs

  • Rental or legacy wealth potential

Hidden Hills demands a premium but historically rewards buyers with stronger long-term appreciation.


Final Thoughts: Which Neighborhood Is Right for You?

Choose Hidden Hills for unmatched privacy and wealth preservation.

Choose Calabasas if you want luxury living with suburban convenience.

Both offer exceptional lifestyles—your choice depends on your priorities.


FAQ

Is Hidden Hills more secure than Calabasas?

Yes. Hidden Hills is fully gated with controlled access and minimal entry points.

Which area has better amenities?

Calabasas offers more suburban amenities—shopping, dining, schools—while Hidden Hills focuses on rural luxury and equestrian living.

Which appreciates more?

Hidden Hills historically sees stronger appreciation due to limited supply and continued celebrity demand.

Hidden Hills Search
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Modern Gated Home Steps from Griffith Park & the LA River

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A Peaceful Pasadena Retreat in Linda Vista

Just Listed: A Peaceful Pasadena Retreat in Linda Vista

Hey friends,

I’m excited to share my newest listing in the prestigious Linda Vista neighborhood of Pasadena!
 

This beautifully updated single-level traditional blends timeless style with luxurious finishes, offering effortless indoor-outdoor living in one of Pasadena’s most desirable neighborhoods. Set on a large, private lot and surrounded by lush landscaping and towering trees, this home is a true retreat designed for comfort, connection, and everyday elegance.

1265 Inverness Dr

4 Bed | 4 Bath | 3,195 Sq Ft | Detached Studio | Koi Pond & Spa
Offered at $3,350,000


📄 Want more details on this home?
👉 View the full property info here

 

Inside you’ll find:

🛋️ A spacious layout with hardwood floors and natural light throughout
🔥 Formal living room with fireplace and French doors to the backyard
👨‍🍳 Chef’s kitchen with center island, farmhouse sink, and charming breakfast nook
🛏️ Private bedroom wing with expansive primary suite and spa-like bath
🎶 Family room with built-in speakers and adjacent powder room
 

Outside is a true sanctuary:

 

🐟 Koi pond with a gentle waterfall
🛁 Oversized in-ground spa under the trees
🍽️ Built-in BBQ and covered patio for entertaining
🎨 Detached custom-built structure for a home office, studio, or creative retreat
🌳 Flat, grassy front yard perfect for lounging or playing with your family
 


📍 The Location

All just minutes from the Rose Bowl, Brookside Park, and a number of renowned schools.
 

 

📆 Open House Schedule

Come see this stunning Pasadena retreat in person!  I’ll be hosting open houses on the following dates:

  • Saturday, June 28th – 2 to 4 PM

  • Sunday, June 29th  – 1 to 4 PM

 


📅 Schedule a Tour

Want to experience this home in person outside of the open house times?
Book a private showing that fits your schedule.

👉 Schedule a Tour
👉 View the full property info here

Jeremiah Vancans
Real Estate Agent
Vancans Group | Compass
jeremiah@vancansgroup.com
vancansgroup.com
CELL: 310-363-1416 
OFFICE: 310-299-9305
DRE: 01944484

Renee Vancans
Real Estate Agent
Vancans Group | Compass
renee@vancansgroup.com
vancansgroup.com
CELL: 714-290-4513
DRE: 02102230
 

✅ Check This Out!

 

🏠 My 4 Steps to Marketing a Home
Want to see how I prep, position, and present homes for maximum impact?
👉 Check out this video

🏠 Property Alerts for Buyers
Get real-time updates on new listings tailored to your preferences.
👉 Sign Up for Alerts

📊 Market Insights & Seller Reports
See current home prices, trends, and local stats — plus get a personalized report on your home’s value.
👉 View Market Insights and Seller Report

📈 Home Equity Report
Track your home’s value, current equity, outstanding loan balances, and leverage opportunities — updated monthly.
👉 Get Your Equity Report


 

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